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☆ Trump has promised an immigration crackdown if reelected. That could backfire on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.

Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, —, Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, ”, Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, “, Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, ”, Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States

☆ Don't call them DINKs. Many childfree adults are ALICEs, living paycheck to paycheck without government assistance
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A growing number of child-free adults, however, are falling through the cracks of the US economy. Many low-income childfree adults fall into the ALICE category — people who are asset-limited, income-constrained, and employed. The majority of these adults don't receive any state or federal rental assistance. AdvertisementMany Social Security and Medicare programs also primarily offer assistance to older adults, excluding adults under 62. He suggested expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit to benefit more adults without children, along with removing the extra qualifications childfree adults must meet to access SNAP benefits.

Persons: —, childfree, Robert Greenstein, Greenstein Organizations: Service, Business, Brookings Institution, Brookings, The Hamilton, Security, SNAP, Social Security Locations: Brookings

☆ Biden Looks to Raise Tax Revenue When Trump Cuts Expire Next Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jim Tankersley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s top economic adviser said on Friday that lawmakers should take advantage of a looming tax debate next year to try to reduce budget deficits by sharply raising taxes on corporations and the rich. Under that plan, Mr. Biden would more than offset the cost of maintaining tax cuts for people earning $400,000 a year or less. A batch of tax cuts signed into law in 2017 by former President Donald J. Trump, who is facing Mr. Biden in a rematch this fall, is set to expire at the end of next year. It includes cuts for individuals at all income levels. Republicans built that expiration into the tax bill to reduce its projected cost to deficits and comply with congressional rules.

Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Lael Brainard, Donald J, Trump Organizations: Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, White, National Economic Council, Republicans Locations: Washington

☆ Biden plans for higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy and corporations to extend middle-class tax breaks
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Director of the National Economic Council Lael Brainard speaks at the White House in Washington, D.C., on January 11, 2024. President Joe Biden's top economic advisor on Friday laid out plans for the country's looming debate over trillions in expiring tax breaks enacted by former President Donald Trump. Several provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 will expire after 2025 without any changes from Congress. Those include lower federal income tax brackets, a higher standard deduction and doubled estate and gift tax exemption, among others. The Republicans' signature tax package also permanently reduced corporate taxes by dropping the top federal rate from 35% to 21%.

Persons: Lael Brainard, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump Organizations: National Economic, White, Washington , D.C, Republicans, Finance, Hamilton, Brookings Institution Locations: Washington ,

☆ US food insecurity: The rising cost of living makes it hard for people with jobs to feed their families
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Tami Luhby | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —The mix of local residents visiting the Enfield Food Shelf in Connecticut has changed a lot in the last few years. It now seems that one unexpected expense tips people’s finances.”Between 300 and 400 households visit the Enfield Food Shelf in Connecticut each week. Khamphay Khen shops at the Enfield Food Shelf to help feed his family of six. The Enfield Food Shelf serves between 300 and 400 households a week. “Even though there are a lot of jobs available, and the unemployment rate is low, we’re seeing food insecurity increasing,” said East.

Persons: Kathleen Souvigney, Souvigney, ”, “, Jason Jakubowski, Khamphay, he’s, Khen, Honda, it’s, Enfield, Chloe East Organizations: CNN, Enfield Food, Survey, Connecticut Foodshare, Enfield Food Shelf, Urban Institute, The Hamilton, Brookings Institution Locations: Connecticut, Enfield, America

☆ 3 Facts That Help Explain a Confusing Economic Moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The path to a “soft landing” doesn’t seem as smooth as it did four months ago. April 13, 2024The economic news of the past two weeks has been enough to leave even seasoned observers feeling whipsawed. Compared with the outlook in December, when the economy seemed to be on a glide path to a surprisingly smooth “soft landing,” the recent news has been disappointing. And yet inflation, even accounting for its recent hiccups, has cooled significantly, while the rest of the economy has so far escaped significant damage. “It seems churlish to complain about where we are right now,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution.

Persons: ”, Wendy Edelberg Organizations: Hamilton, Brookings Institution

☆ What’s getting more expensive — and cheaper — at the grocery store
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s the lowest annual increase registered since June 2021 and a far cry from the 11.8% increase registered in December 2022. Overall food prices were up 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the rate of increase seen in November, CPI data shows. Eggs and ham prices went up the most in December as compared to other food categories tracked in the CPI. Ham prices rose 2.6% for the month (2.9% excluding canned ham), BLS data showed. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that grocery prices rose only 1.3% for the year ended in December.

Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Adams, chow, Wendy Edelberg, Ash Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Comerica Bank, CPI, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Ham, United States

☆ CPI: America’s final inflation report for 2023 just came in
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.

Persons: “, ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, ’, Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s

☆ About 3.5 million more American families went hungry after food prices spiked and the pandemic-era child tax credit ended
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There was also an increase in food insecurity for households with children from 2021 to 2022. AdvertisementAdvertisementAbout 3.5 million more US households were food insecure for at least part of 2022 than in 2021. Food insecurity is when the "ability to acquire adequate food is limited by a lack of money and other resources," per the report. Around 17 million households, or 12.8% of US households, were food insecure in 2022. Hall said the 40% increase in food insecurity for households with children, from 4.6 million households to 6.4 million households, was also discouraging given the large fall in 2021.

Persons: Chloe East, —, Lauren Hall, Hall, Tom Vilsack, Vilsack Organizations: Hamilton, Brookings, Service, US Department of Agriculture, University of Colorado, SNAP, Budget, Women, USDA Locations: University of Colorado Denver, America

☆ Some 70,000 child-care providers may close as federal aid ends, report finds. What that means for parents
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Child care 'is a public good'Experts say that systemic change, such as broader parental leave and more public funding for child care, must be involved in order for child care to improve at a larger scale. The national annual cost of child care was about $10,853 for one child in 2022, the organization Child Care Aware of America found. In 2023, 67% of parents reported to spend 20% or more of their household income on child care, Care.com found. Use the benefits you have availableYour workplace may have some options to help you find care, such as backup care providers or on-site child care. Meanwhile, California, Colorado, Hawaii and New Mexico passed laws to provide universal preschool in the past year.

Persons: Lauren Rosenberg, Taryn Morrissey, Morrissey, Care.com, Katherine Gallagher Robbins Organizations: Portland Press Herald, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American University, U.S . Department of Labor, D.C, Strong, Society for Human Resource Management, District of Columbia, The National Partnership for Women, Washington, Washington , D.C, National Institute for Early Education Research Locations: Portland , Maine, Hamilton, America, Washington, U.S, California , Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware , Maine , Maryland , Massachusetts, Minnesota , New Jersey , New York , Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington ,, Florida , Iowa , Oklahoma , Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia , Illinois, Maine, New York, , California , Colorado, Hawaii, New Mexico

☆ Instant View: Fitch downgrades U.S. foreign currency ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The downgrade follows a debt ceiling agreement in June that came after months of political brinkmanship and ultimately lifted the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Unless they think that fiscal trajectory suggests risk of a default, which I don't think they say, I don't understand the reason for this." “So I don't think the reaction, it should surprise anyone in the markets because we've been through this before. JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET WEALTH ADVISORS IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA"I'm surprised, but I'm not surprised." "It's really the just the troubled negotiations that take place every time we have a debt ceiling or budget negotiation.

Persons: Thomas White, Fitch, STEVEN RICCHIUTO, ” WENDY EDELBERG, I'm, JASON WARE, Fiitch, MICHAEL O’ROURKE, “, ” BERNARD BAUMOHL, Poor’s, ” MICHAEL SCHULMAN, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, ”, MICHAEL K, FARR, That’s, ” KEITH LERNER, ” “ It’s, ERIC WINOGRAD, ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, QUINCY KROSBY, doesn't, JACK ABLIN, it's Organizations: REUTERS, United, AAA, USA, ., OF, HAMILTON PROJECT, BROOKINGS, WASHINGTON D.C, ALBION, Fitch, AA, PRINCETON, NEW, ST LOUIS, MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, ADVISORY, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, MIZUHO, WASHINGTON, CITY , UTAH, STAMFORD , CONNECTICUT, NEW JERSEY, ATLANTA, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, BEACH , FLORIDA

☆ Inflation just fell when rate hikes were paused. So why should the Fed keep hiking?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But last month’s inflation report was an outlier — for the first time, the declines weren’t immediately preceded by a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. One month doesn’t dictate a trendFed Chair Jerome Powell has said it time and time again: One month’s data is not indicative of a trend. Powell repeatedly stresses that the Fed takes a data-dependent approach to interest rate decisions. In Schoenholtz’s view, the Fed should continue to hike interest rates even though inflation slowed down sharply in June despite the central bank holding rates steady. If the Fed waits too long to raise interest rates, it could risk its credibility, leading to a persistently higher price level that’s harder for the Fed to crack down on.

Persons: weren’t, Jerome Powell, ”, Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell, “, Wendy Edelberg, they’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Federal, CPI, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, Fed, Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, CNN Locations: New York, Kermit Schoenholtz , New

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ Biden and McCarthy's plan to change SNAP work requirements in the debt-ceiling deal could actually expand benefits — but not employment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

She led some of her Democratic colleagues in introducing an amendment to remove the new SNAP work requirements from the debt-ceiling bill. "Come see me in a year, and I'll show you how much we actually saved," McCarthy told reporters on Tuesday night. How the work requirements will impact employmentDespite McCarthy and Republicans' belief that work requirements will bolster employment, some experts aren't so sure. Work requirements in SNAP have increased employment less; in Medicaid, they appear to have had little effect on employment." "I think it goes to the principle of this bureaucratic red tape that we call work requirements," Jayapal said.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, McCarthy, — McCarthy, Cori Bush, Lauren Bauer, there's, Bauer, Bernard Yaros, it's, Yaros, Congressional Progressive Caucus Pramila Jayapal, Jayapal Organizations: SNAP, CBO, Service, Supplemental, Assistance, Democratic, Office, White, Economic, Brookings Institution, The, Brookings, Moody's, Congressional Progressive Caucus Locations: Missouri, TANF

☆ In the Market: Amid the calm, the Fed brews the next storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Paritosh Bansal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.

☆ The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long. While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. It can be difficult to slow an unemployment spiralEconomists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate. As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.

☆ The Fed may have to blow up the economy to get inflation under control
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Jobs report also on tapThe Fed meeting takes place just two days before the nation will get its next report card on the labor market. Another jobs report, from payroll processor ADP, is also due out next week, and this one looks just at Corporate America. The government said in the September jobs report that average hourly earnings rose 5% in the past 12 months. The Fed typically prefers to see wage growth in the 2% to 3% annual range as a sign that inflation is under control. Discovery, Starbucks (SBUX), PayPal (PYPL), Amgen (AMGN) and Block (SQ)Friday: US jobs report; earnings from Cardinal Health (CAH), Duke Energy (DUK) and Hershey (HSY)

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